Pretenders No More

College football season started with a bang this past weekend as former upstarts TCU and Boise State proved they’re ready to play with the big boys this year. Well, at least the mid-sized boys who were willing to play them (let’s see if anyone is willing to do it next year…). I thought both games were QB stories, actually:

Boise State def. Virginia Tech 33-30
I’ve been saying for three years that Tyrod Taylor is not a legitimate D1 quarterback (search the blog for Tyrod!) and I stand by my decision. Here’s the difference: After Virginia Tech inexplicably tries to pass for the first down on 3rd and 8 instead of taking another 35 seconds off the clock, Boise State gets the ball back down 4 points with 1:47 on the clock and no timeouts. No matter, because Kellen Moore needs only 38 seconds to take his team 56 yards to pay dirt. Seems like they might have left too much time (1:09) on the clock, right? Not a chance, because without the threat of the scramble, Taylor can’t attack through the air. Essentially, he’s not a dual threat quarterback the way Jake Locker is or Michael Vick was. Taylor has both skills, but they must be used in tandem. Boise State contained him just enough in the early going to make it too late for the Hokies at the end.

TCU def. Oregon State 30-21
Another senior quarterback with all the intangibles leads his team to victory over a team with an overrated quarterback. Oregon State’s Ryan Katz, however, is overrated in a different way. I’m pretty certain he’ll be an NFL quarterback. Fantastic arm, throws a nice deep ball, and he did show some resilience. But he’s not ready yet, and he was asked to do too much too soon. The result: a fade down the stretch which culminated in a snap over his head that effectively ended the game. Andy Dalton may be just the opposite. Probably doesn’t have the tools to be an NFL quarterback, but his experience meant everything. It wasn’t one of his better games, but he made plays with his legs, and showed his toughness and his leadership in overcoming two bad interceptions.

So, what does it all mean? On one hand, Oregon State and Virginia Tech are elite teams in name only. They don’t have the horses to hang with the Tide or the Buckeyes and beating them may only prove that TCU and Boise State belong in the top 25, which everyone already knew. On the other hand, what do these mid-majors have to do? They’ve beaten everyone in their path and everyone else is too scared to get in their path.

Here’s my take: In general, I think you need sustained success to be a true contender and these programs both appear to have gotten lucky on a quarterback other schools misjudged. It could very well be a flash in the pan that will be gone next year when these guys graduate. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that Boise State burst onto the scene by beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2006 season. That was a while and 2 quarterbacks ago. If you consider the recruiting push they’d get from being in the national championship game and the ungodly number of talented football players in California paired with the watering down of the pac-10, they have a real shot at sustained success. TCU, maybe not so much. There’s a reason you hear Andy Dalton compared with Sammy Baugh so much – there hasn’t been anyone else like them at TCU. And yes, there’s a large talent pool in Texas, but UT, A&M and even SMU now that June Jones is there have a pretty good pull. And the SEC and Big 12 are much harder to contend with for players.

Advantage: Boise State. I’ll be rooting for them this year.